India trade policies and “self reliance” focus could be bad news for Australia

As China continues a trade war with Australia, news from India would be a concern to those who see India as an alternative market to China.

In his India Independence Day speech, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched “Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan” (Indian self-reliance). This would have set the alarm bells ringing in Austrade and the Government.

It sounds like protectionism, looks like protectionism and seems impossible to achieve without protectionism – but everyone in India is busy telling us it is not protectionism.

Even so, the speech by PM Modi gave a call for reducing imports and pushing exports of finished products in place of raw material, saying the country will have to move forward with the mantra of ‘Make in India’ as well as ‘Make for World’.

External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar later clarified, saying that Atma Nirbhar Bharat merges domestic production and consumption with global supply chains. He added that it’s not about being self-contained or being closed to the world rather being self-sustaining and self-generating.

China has imposed an 80 percent tariff on barley imports from Australia in retaliation for Canberra’s demand for an independent investigation into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. This will cost Australian farmers AU$500 million annually. It has also hit imports of Australian wines.

Can Australia turn to India as an alternative? For wines, probably not – Australia is seen as a source of non-premium cheap wines in India so our premium sales to China would not appeal there – at least not without a lot of marketing.

Here’s what I think Atma Nirbhar Bharat means India will do:

  1. Reduce its over-dependence on other countries for trade by focusing on inward manufacturing.
  2. Promote Indian products, brands and services by becoming “VOCAL FOR LOCAL”; and
  3. Continue to trade with other countries but aim to eliminate trade imbalances and, where possible, adopt a mercantilist approach to international trade.

So, Australia and other potential trading partners with India will have to make up their own minds. For for now, Atma Nirbhar Bharat does not look like good news for them.

India and Australia are perfectly placed to become closer allies in the post-Covid19 world

The relationship between India should flourish in strategic and defence areas plus trade and investment.

Both Australia and India are significant powers in the Indian Ocean region.

India, the world’s largest democracy, is a major power.

The trade relationship

India was Australia’s eighth-largest trading partner and fifth-largest export market in 2018-19, driven by coal and international education. Two-way goods and services trade with India was $30.3 billion in 2018-19, and the level of two-way investment was $30.7 billion in 2018.

Strategic relations much closer now

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has worked hard on the India relationship and his personal connection with Indian PM Narendra Modi.

On 4 June 2020, Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, participated in the Australia-India Leaders’ Virtual Summit. At this meeting, the two Prime Ministers elevated the bilateral Strategic Partnership concluded in 2009 to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP).

The CSP is based on mutual understanding, trust, common interests and the shared values of democracy and rule of law. Through the CSP, both countries have committed to work together across a range of areas.

The CSP also marks a step forward in the two countries’ ambitious agenda to expand our trade and economic relationship, as outlined in the India Economic Strategy (IES), which was released in July 2018 and endorsed by the Australian Government in November 2018.

India’s growing economy and young population need Australian goods and services

Over the next 20 years, a growing India will need many of Australia’s goods and services, including agriculture, education and skills training, and healthcare. There will of course be growth across most areas – but these are the standouts.

Since 2000, India’s GDP has grown seven-fold to reach USD3 trillion. India’s economy is forecast to become the third largest by 2030 (currently seventh) in market exchange rate terms. India already has the third largest economy in PPP terms and is set to maintain this ranking. The two-way stock of investment was valued at AUD30.7 billion in 2018. In 2018, Australia’s investment in India was valued at AUD15.6 billion and India’s investment in Australia was valued at AUD15.1 billion. India was Australia’s 18th largest investment destination.

The Aussie “India Economic Strategy”

Australia’s economic engagement with India is underpinned by the India Economic Strategy (IES), which was commissioned by the Australian Government in 2017 and led by Mr Peter Varghese, former Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (2012-2016) and High Commissioner to India (2009-2012). This document is the guide for future growth.

Education is huge but facing challenges

Education is Australia’s largest service export to India, valued at AUD5.5 billion and accounting for around 85 per cent of the total. Indian students in Australia number almost 110, 000 (year to date September 2019), which marks a 33 per cent increase over the previous year. These students made 132,079 enrolments in Australia, comprising 15 per cent of international enrolments. As an education export market, India is second only to China, with exports valued at AUD12.1 billion in 2018-19 and 246,454 enrolments in Australia. Adapting to post-Covid19 education market changes will be a challenge for Australian universities.

Austrade is showing and creating the way

The Australia-India Business Exchange (AIB-X) is a new, Austrade-led, Australia-India business marketing platform that will build on the success of Australian Business Week in India, last held in 2017. This multi-month campaign included a coordinated program of activities and events. Minister Birmingham led a business mission to India in late February as part of AIB-X, with sectoral events and workshops to be held in five cities.

This will provide an opportunity to deepen trade and investment ties, focusing on small and medium across the IES’ priority sectors. Further information can be found on the Austrade website.

Plus Austrade has set up The Australian Store at Amazon India – primed to take off over the next few years.

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People-to-people links

Australia and India are building strong and lasting ties through our people-to-people links.

The Indian diaspora (comprising both Australians of Indian origin and Indians resident in Australia) is now Australia’s fastest growing large diaspora. According to the most recent (2016) Census, the number of people born in India amounts to 592,000, representing 2.4 per cent of the Australian population, or 1 in 50 people. Around 700,000 people claim Indian ancestry.

India remains Australia’s largest source of skilled migrants and the second largest source of international students. Hinduism is our fastest growing religion and Punjabi is our fastest growing language.

The Australia India Council

The Australia-India Council is also advancing Australia’s foreign and trade policy interests with India. Each year it provides grants for programs linking the two countries. I was fortunate to support the Genesis Horticulture Services research mission to India in November – part funded by AIC.

(Thanks to DFAT for lots of the above information)

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India’s Reliance second to Apple in “FutureBrand Index”

Who said India could not produce strong brands?

Billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries has been ranked second biggest brand after Apple on the FutureBrand Index 2020.

“This year’s highest entrant at number two, Reliance Industries excels on every attribute,” FutureBrand said, releasing its 2020 Index.

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“One of the most profitable companies in India, Reliance is, very well respected and is seen as behaving ethically as well as being associated with growth, innovative products and great customer service. People have a strong emotional connection with the organisation,” it added.

FutureBrand, a global brand transformation company, said part of Reliance’s success could be attributed to Mukesh Ambani’s recasting of the firm as a one-stop-shop for Indians.

“The chairman built on the existing petrochemicals business, transforming it into a digital behemoth designed to meet every customer need. Today, this company is engaged in several sectors including energy, petrochemicals, textiles, natural resources, retail, and telecommunications. Now that Google and Facebook are taking equity stakes in the firm, we may see Reliance jostling for the top spot in the next Index,” it said.

India attracting investment during the pandemic and USA is the largest trading partner for a second year

Since March, India has received over $20 billion of new investment from Western companies despite the pandemic.

Thanks to John Bell, Client Relations, Amritt, Inc, Malibu California for this information.

Here are  four examples of significant improvement in bilateral trade between the two countries (India and USA) during the pandemic:

Dozens of large and small organizations depend on Amritt as their trusted advisor to succeed in India, whether selling, sourcing or leveraging talent.

You can Email John Bell at johnb@amritt.com

 

Covid19 could lead us to a cleaner more innovative world – if we rethink what we do

About seven million people are killed by air pollution every year. The current model of modern society is unsustainable.

Two leading Professors say that looking through a COVID-19 lens provides us an amazing picture outside and shows some innovative pathways on living in harmony with nature, i.e. new-modern society.

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They are Professor Suresh Bhargava, RMIT University, Australia (pictured above) and Professor Seeram Ramakrishnan, National University of Singapore (below).

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Here are some points from their recent paper on the topic:

Contrary to devastating effects, the COVID19 had positive outcomes in terms of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, depletion of natural resources, and climate change.  Satellite imageries confirm the reduction of NOx, SOx and other pollutants in all cities of the world.

COVID19 provides an opportunity to rethink everything humans do. The current model of modern society is unsustainable. Reversing the clock and going back to pre-modern society built on fulfilling just the needs of humans is not realistic.

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Sustaining the modern society built on fulfilling the needs and wants of humans requires out of the box thinking. In the current climate of COVID, companies are struggling to survive on top of challenges in industry 4.0 or digitalization of products and services. How will they be able to think about sustainability while their worry is about resilience, and make the necessary adjustments to their business for the long term?

Sustainability has tended to be a secondary priority for many industries and especially SME businesses. Now faced with business survival and viability concerns, what is the status of existing sustainability initiatives in companies and across industries? How has the pandemic affected existing initiatives and longer-term targets, plans and ambitions on the sustainability front?  How can organisations get back on track with regard to their sustainability ambitions e.g. are there synergistic business-led propositions that can serve these aims? What countries can do in terms of sustainability, circular economy and Paris agreement to decarbonize while growing shrink economies and rising employment opportunities?

Using a COVID19 lens, there are opportunities for decarbonisation while not compromising the modern ways of living and economic growth.

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Countries and companies will shorten the supply chains and value chains.  Globalization will take newer form relying more on digital technologies and internet.  This will be facilitated by yet to emerge innovations in finance and commerce.

COVID19 has unexpected effect on food industry. Clean meat is touted as a solution to zoonotic diseases associated with current methods of producing meat from the animals.  Clean meat is made from plant based, cultivated cells.  Hence the carbon footprint is lower than animal sourced meat.

Critics will argue for slow and careful introduction of clean meat to the mass population.  Therein lies huge opportunities for innovations, technologies, new jobs and new pathways of economic growth while caring for the Earth.

Importance of safe water and its adequate supply is highlighted by the COVID19.  Sustainable future lies in the zero-waste water innovations and technologies.

The single use plastic wastes have been identified for their pollution of the marine ecology and subsequent negative effects on the food chain and human health.  Science, business, standards, and policy innovations are needed to replace the petrochemical derived plastics with degradable bioplastics derived from the renewable sources.  Designing products with end-of-life considerations and life cycle engineering opens up opportunities for economy growth and new jobs creation while improving the quality of environment.

The Energy sector is also affected by the COVID19.  Oil futures went into negative. It is an opportune time for the governments to eliminate the fossil fuel subsidies and invest in renewable energy infrastructure as long-term nation building.

Perhaps, governments and companies should together accelerate the electrification of transportation.  New jobs and new economic growth to happen in vehicle design and manufacturing, digitization, as well as charging infrastructure.

COVID19 transformed shopping and brought almost the whole of humanity to on-line shopping.  The on-line shopping for groceries and food deliveries are on par with electronic goods and accessories.

Similarly, work has moved to telework, and the Education moved to on-line learning and assessment.

Digital services for virtual meetings, online learning, telemedical diagnostics, government services, ecommerce, grocery delivery, e-banking, and entertainment all experienced unprecedented growth in demand. The hyper scale data centres with their 24x7x365 resilient operation, are the heart of digital transformation.

Looking to the coming decade, the introduction of 5G will further accelerate the digital transformation era with its clear alignment with Industrial 4.0, in which real time data and automation will power more of the industrial world.

Clear messages emerged from the COVID19 pandemic include, the digital transformation is a necessity to keep society running; mental health is important for the general well-being and productivity of a person; and a healthy living environment is a basic human right.

The circular economy vision, decarbonisation and sustainability efforts mitigate climate change thus create opportunities for sustained economic growth and new jobs creation. 

Amazing research work by the two and continues the innovative and collaborative approaches of my friend Professor Suresh Bhargava – well done!

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Start your India journey with Chennai – and start your India outsourcing with Sundaram

Tamil Nadu has the second-largest economy in India and by area is the fourth largest state of India. The capital is Chennai and over 60% of the state is urbanised.

Chennai is one of my personal favourites – doing business there is good and there is plenty of tourism and activity to keep life interesting.

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One of the leading firms is the Sundaram Finance group, led by Managing Director TT Srinivasaraghavan. The firm has a code of ethics and behaviour which it calls “The Sundaram Way” – an inspiring document worth looking up.

Within the Sundaram group is an outsourcing and business consulting arm, Sundaram Business Services (SBS).

SBS is strong in Australia and provides services to many leading brands, including a major superannuation outsourcing practice.

SBS is led here by Harish Rao who pioneered Australia’s superannuation outsourcing to India (pictured below, Harish Rao has won several awards in Australia).

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As a southern India state, it is highly courteous, very friendly, conservative in approach to business and a good starting place to find a trusted business partner.

Tamil Nadu has a diversified manufacturing sector and features among the leaders in several industries like automobiles and auto components, engineering, pharmaceuticals, garments, textile products, leather products, chemicals, plastics, etc.

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It has a well-developed infrastructure with an excellent road and rail network, three major ports, 15 minor ports, and seven airports across the state providing excellent connectivity.

As of February 2020, the state had 54 formally approved Special Economic Zone (SEZs), 50 notified SEZs and four with in- principle approval SEZs and has total 40 exporting SEZs.

For most of you, Chennai and the state of Tamil Nadu make a good starting point on your India journey.

Two Indian business giants are innovating during Covid19.

Expansion often means exploring the unexplored.

Two of India’s largest companies have done it.

Reliance Industries Ltd on Wednesday said it’s going to expand its food-and-grocery play in JioMart to include fashion, consumer electronics, and smartphones by this festive season. Tata Consulting Services (TCS) on July 8 launched Quartz smart solution to offer cryptocurrency trading.

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JioMart’s plan to revolutionise the e-grocery space involves the Kirana stores, the oldest form of local mum and dad retail in India.

JioMart has been bringing small stores online, thereby putting kirana store owners at the centre of its plans. What’s in it for Reliance? The Kirana stores become last point of delivery in the logistics trail, plus, by digitising a local store you open a minefield of hyperlocal information. With a larger size of kirana-store customers, B2B e-commerce platforms get a robust database of actual sales instead of estimates. This data can be sold to brand manufacturers. It’s one of the biggest revenue streams for any company taking kirana stores online. RIL is one smart business!

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TCS is looking to get an early-mover advantage with Quartz, having a big impact in the global enterprise blockchain-solutions market. Its new product, Quartz, aims to make swift inroads into cryptocurrency trading in countries such as Switzerland and Singapore where it’s legal. TCS is eyeing high-net-worth investors, private banking, and wealth-management segments. However, Quartz may not find takers in India in the absence of regulatory clarity.

How India is different from China – insights from Asialink Business

Asialink Business has a wonderful Asian Market Update Series and a recent one focused on India.

One of the speakers was Mary Manning – Portfolio Manager at Ellerston Capital.

Dr Manning manages the Ellerston India Fund among other Asian investments.

She detailed why India is unique and not the next China. For example, the structures of the two economies are very different and beyond coal, exporting bulk commodities is not going to be the bedrock of Australia’s relationship with India.

India is also at a very different stage of economic development to China, with different consumer preferences, price points and distribution channels. These factors give rise to a completely different set of sectoral opportunities, that will most likely require capital investment on the ground – but one size does not fit all when it comes allocating capital in India.

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Dr Manning cited several examples of successful investment in India by multi-national corporations that cut across geographies, sectors, time frames and business models, such as majority stakes in listed companies, through to unlisted joint ventures and distribution agreements. These companies include household names in Unilever, Suzuki, Prudential, Macquarie, Facebook, Alibaba, McDonalds, Walmart, and QBE.

Dr Manning said the higher returns on equity that could be achieved in India were a major reason why Australian companies should be considering investment opportunities there.

She said there was currently an investor scramble for ‘new economy’ assets in India in key areas such as healthcare and infrastructure and while good buying opportunities could present over the next six to 12 months for equity investors – with the Indian economy weakened by COVID-19 – a long-term view was needed.

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7 ways to succeed in wonderful India

This short list can be your guide to success in wonderful India:

  1. Bring a culturally aware and adaptable mind to India – you will need both. By “culturally aware” I mean more than how to greet and exchange cards. Cultural awareness is understanding how the other thinks and requires some study and effort.
  2. Develop some flexible plans for India – they will need to change!
  3. Commit to India for the long term. One or two years is not enough. I have been going to India since around 2005 and still learning new things and making new connections – to find a way through the maze that is India.
  4. Make social media a part of your program to build your brand and product awareness in India – the shift to social media/digital marketing there is huge.IndiaDigitalEco
  5. Adapt planning and approaches for the need of your business and sector. You might need a quick market study – or you might need studies over several years. Each is different.
  6. Learn as much as you can about your potential market – connect with your potential customers and see how they operate and what is happening in their sector.
  7. Let the market build a relationship with you and learn about your business. Again, like all the other points, this takes time.

CONCLUSION

It is going to take time to succeed in India. But for one of the biggest most dynamic markets with the youngest population on the planet, investing your time will pay off.

Why get closer to India? About 600 million people, more than half India’s population, are under 25 years old; no country has more young people. Remember the economic impact of the western “baby boom”? It is time the west moved closer to India in trade, culture and tourism. What do you think? As the great Indian philosopher Rabindranath Tagore said: “You can’t cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water.”

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Google backing India as it becomes cautious on China

Google plans to invest US$10 billion over the next five to seven years to help accelerate the adoption of digital technologies in India.

Mr Sundar Pichai (pictured below), who was born in the country and is currently chief executive officer of parent Alphabet Inc., made the announcement at the annual Google for India event via video conference.

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He said, “This is a reflection of our confidence in the future of India and its digital economy”.

The US$10 billion funds are expected to be invested in partnerships, operations, infrastructure, the digital ecosystem, and equity investments. Google will focus on several key areas:

  • Providing affordable access and information for every Indian in their own language, including Hindi, Tamil, and Punjabi
  • Developing new products and services focused on India’s unique needs
  • Encouraging businesses as they continue or embark on their digital transformation
  • Utilising technology and artificial intelligence for social good, in areas like health, education, and agriculture

INTO INDIA can report there are more than 500 million internet users in India, second only to China, with growth that has attracted all the American technology giants.

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Google is already using AI to predict floods in India

For those watching political and strategic shifts away from China – earlier this month, Google stopped its plans to offer a new cloud service in China and other politically sensitive countries.

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India has had a surge of foreign interest in its digital economy. In the last few months, investors including Facebook Inc., Qualcomm Inc. and Intel Corp. have put around US$16 billion in the digital services unit of India’s largest conglomerate, the retail-to-telecom giant Reliance Industries Ltd.

Google, Facebook, Amazon.com Inc., and others are investing billions into the market.

As China seems less attractive for investors, India has the opportunity to shine and show its true attractions to investors and business.