IMF Projects India’s Growth Rate to Jump to Impressive 12.5 Per Cent in 2021

My good friend Mugunthan Siva is the CEO of India Avenue Investment Management – an India and Australia investment company – and he has advised me of great news for the Indian economy and investors.

The International Monetary Fund is now forecasting India to grow GDP at 12.5% in 2021 – the only double digit forecast amongst developed and emerging economies.

Expected global growth of 6% will also play a role in India’s growth given its incrementally increasing role in supply chains, the rise again of the IT outsourcing industry and its strength in pharmaceutical manufacture and export.

In 2022 the IMF forecasts a further 6.9% GDP growth for India – once again the leader of the pack. If India continues to grow like this the US$5tn goal of the Modi’s Government appears within reach in the next 4-5 years.

According to Mugunthan, India’s equity market is evolving nicely given the pivot post COVID. Market breadth has normalised and active managers are dominating the landscape again, as they should in an inefficient equity market like India’s. The next 3 years should see a strong recovery in corporate profit.

India to become the 3rd largest economy and “sweet spot” for investors over next decade

Indranil Sen Gupta, BofA Securities

Indranil Sen Gupta, BofA Securities, recently expressed the view that India is likely to become the 3rd largest economy over this decade. This will be driven by:
– sweetspot for the demographic dividend
– significant FX reserves to protect the economy
– 9-10% nominal GDP growth over the decade
– Low interest rates will lead to the next capex cycle, earnings growth

He said: “We see the economy growing at 9% nominal, that is 6% growth, 5% inflation, and 2% depreciation for the next two years. There are three drivers. The demographic dividend which we have all been talking about for the last 15 to 20 years is actually going to kick in from 2020 and help savings and investments. Secondly, there is financial deepening. Compare it to GDP ratio, which is around 40 to 50 per cent of GDP, should jump almost 100%. And thirdly, there is the emergence of mass markets, which the US probably saw 100 years ago. For example, the price of an entry level car today is 2.5x down from 14x 20 years ago. We think that is close to 1x on export basis.”

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/india-to-be-the-third-largest-economy-in-10-years-bofa-securities/articleshow/81685020.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Adani group transforms from coal empire to infrastructure, renewables and data

Gautam Adani is transforming his business

After spending two decades building a business empire centred on coal, Indian billionaire Gautam Adani is now looking at a different future. His ambitious plans are getting a boost from close friend Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Mr Adani is diversifying into airports, data centres and defence – sectors Mr Modi considers crucial to meeting India’s economic goals. Investors are rewarding the pivot.

In less than two years, Mr Adani has gained control of seven airports and almost a quarter of India’s air traffic.

Adani will boost his renewable energy capacity almost eightfold by 2025.

Last week, he won a contract to co-develop a port terminal in Sri Lanka, a neighbour India is courting to check China’s influence in the region.

Adani Enterprises last month signed a deal with Edge- ConneX to develop and operate data centres across India.

After starting out as a commodities trader in the late 1980s, Mr Adani is now India’s second-wealthiest person, with a net worth of US$56 billion. He has added US$50 billion to his fortune in the past year, about US$5 billion more than Mr Ambani, Asia’s richest man, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Vishal Kampani, JM Financial, applauds the Indian budget

Commenting on the recent Indian Budget, Vishal Kampani, Managing Director, JM Financial Group, said “the Finance Minister has laid the foundation for next-generation growth and deserves a big round of applause.”

The Union Budget 2021-22 presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday has laid out the road map for India to achieve sustainable growth in the years to come by delivering on key expectations. By choosing growth imperatives over fiscal puritanism, the FM has clearly indicated where the government’s focus and priorities rightly lie.

Read more at:

https://www.fortuneindia.com/macro/budget-to-propel-growth-but-implementation-is-the-key/105141

Will your “reset” include new approaches to India?

Australia and India have never been closer. The last year has seen major advances in strategic and defence engagement and cooperation.

Now, as business and organisations reset, does India play a role in your future plans?

Growth in India is outstanding and assured – largely because of a young population boosting domestic demand.

It is a complex and very different market, but one which rewards the right entry strategy and long term engagement plans.

Time for India to be part of your reset?

India releases its first ever “Australia Economic Strategy” as the two countries move closer

The launch by India on 18 December of its Australia Economic Strategy (AES) – the first of its kind for India – could be an exciting step along the way to increased trade. As KPMG has expressed it: “It demonstrates India’s intent to fast-track the relationship with Australia in a post-pandemic world.” Exciting.

My view is that as Australia and India move closer together, opportunities will emerge for the two to create and lead an “Indian Ocean Countries Group” – a pathway to peace and prosperity in our region.

India and Australia could lead a prosperous and peaceful Indian Ocean Region

The AES is India’s response to Australia’s An India Economic Strategy to 2035 (IES), launched two years ago.

The AES adds to the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) announced by Prime Ministers Morrison and Modi in June 2020 – and both are real evidence that India and Australia are moving closer together.

Three pillars of India’s strategy

The AES is based on three pillars: resources; technology & services; and research & innovations.

Five key sectors

According to KPMG there are five key sectors:

The first is Indian investment in Australia’s mining and resources sector, especially lithium, cobalt and nickel, important for a rapidly growing e-vehicle market.

Second is Indian investment in renewable energy both in the establishment & operation of solar farms as well as the supply of EPC services with Sterling Wilson Solar Limited being a case in point.

Third is health and pharmaceuticals. Collaboration in clinical trials, cancer research, medical & health-tech and training, knowledge transfer and sharing of Australian best practices in hospital administration and patient care.

Fourth is investment in Australia’s agribusiness sector including farmlands and Australian food processing capabilities. There is also significant potential for knowledge sharing and collaboration in best practices for dairy processing.

The fifth is software & information technology. India’s tech giants already have sizeable operations in Australia with further organic and inorganic growth on the cards and an opportunity to extend their business portfolio into government accounts. Further, as Australia looks to build up internal capability and capacity, there is opportunity for the tech giants to set-up centres of excellence or innovation hubs in strategically important areas such as cyber security, cloud and digital, for Australia and the wider ASPAC region.

Make in India program

The new AES, and IES and the wider strategic partnership, all serve to complement India’s flagship Make in India program, which makes India a credible alternative for lower cost manufacturing for Australian companies as they look to diversify business and supply chain risk in a post pandemic world.

Conclusion

Close relations have historically been built on a combination of defence/strategic alliances, mutual investment and trade.

For Australia and India, the future is looking bright in all three areas.

Bill Gates says India is one to watch for tech innovation

Tech pioneer Bill Gates praised India’s policies for financial innovation and inclusion, saying his philanthropic foundation is working with other countries to roll out open-source technologies modeled on the country’s implementation.

“If people are going to study one country right now, other than China, I’d say they should look at India,” Gates said at the Singapore Fintech Festival on Tuesday. “Things are really exploding there and innovation around that system is phenomenal.”

India has built ambitious platforms for universal identification and digital payments, including the world’s largest biometric database and a system for sending rupees between any bank or smartphone app. Gates said those policies have drastically reduced the cost and friction of distributing aid to the poor, especially during the pandemic.

Can China become a likeable, trusted power?

China is living in a hostile external environment – mostly of its own making.

Recent aggressive rhetoric plus trade restrictions on Australia and border battles with India are leading examples of how China is projecting itself and the world is worried.

But China also means to become moderately prosperous by 2035. It will need to overcome global misgivings if this is to be achieved.

Andrew K.P. Leung is an independent China strategist and has written about this for the South China Morning Post.

Here are 10 steps China should take, according to Leung

First, get the message firmly across that China is neither able nor willing to unseat the US as the global superpower. China cannot compete with America, which has a military presence in 80 countries and whose military expenditure is 38 per cent of the global total – more than the next 10 countries’ combined.

Second, cut out the wolf warrior rhetoric, whether in diplomacy or on social media.

Third, work with the US and the World Health Organization to end the global pandemic.

Fourth, actively cooperate with the Biden administration on climate change.

Fifth, conduct regular joint naval patrols with the US forces in wider waters of the South China Sea.

Sixth, set aside territorial disputes and work with neighbouring countries in the South China Sea on the joint management and exploration of natural resources, including fisheries, habitats and deep-sea energy resources.

Seventh, embrace free and fair trade. For starters, seek to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which a Biden presidency may wish to join too.

Eighth, China should help North Korea become a rising economic powerhouse like Vietnam.

Ninth, reform the Belt and Road Initiative. Make it more transparent and include more participants.

Tenth, meet more milestones on the path to reform and opening up, whether or not they have been set in the 14th five-year plan – including issues like market reciprocity, state-owned enterprise subsidies, transparency, rule of law, human rights and goals including technological self-reliance and quality growth.

Leung writes that China has vowed to double the size of its economy and become moderately prosperous by 2035.

China is unlikely to act on Leung’s 10 suggestions – but to move on some would send positive signals to the world.

Andrew K.P. Leung is an independent China strategist. 

 andrewkpleung@gmail.com

Melbourne set to attract more movies and digital games creativity – maybe Bollywood too?

Great move by my home town, Melbourne – Victoria’s thriving creative industry received a massive boost with the State Government announcing a record investment of $33.8 million in the 2020-21 Budget in local screen productions to allow more global and local projects to be shot here.

This includes international film Blacklight which started shooting in Melbourne last week. The Liam Neeson feature is one of a number of productions currently shooting in Victoria while adhering to strict COVIDSafe protocols.

Some $19.2 million will be allocated to attract international and interstate screen projects through a new Victorian Screen Incentive. This incentive will target physical productions, visual effects, animation, post-production and, for the first time, digital games projects.

There will be $4.7 million for the development and production of local content across film, television, online and games and $8.6 million to continue Film Victoria’s successful local production investment and industry and skills development programs, on top of Film Victoria’s ongoing operational funding.

As Docklands Studios Melbourne prepares to break ground on its $46 million sixth sound stage, $1.3 million will be allocated to create a trade and technical hub close to the studios for screen crews and support businesses.

Melbourne is a creative city – so if you are a creative, time to take a look…

For more information, visit https://www.film.vic.gov.au/funding/incentives/

To learn more about Victoria’s thriving digital games sector, visit https://www.invest.vic.gov.au/opportunities/technology/digital-games

Contact us to explore opportunities to be a part of Victoria’s thriving creative industry.

How did India miss out on being part of the world’s biggest trading bloc?

India is missing from the world’s biggest trade bloc which has just been formed – 15 countries representing 2.2 billion people have signed on to a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Talks on RCEP began in 2012 and it has now created a bloc which accounts for about one third of the world economy.

This is a massive new initiative for global trade.

India and the USA have missed out – India because of concerns for farmers produce, and the USA because President Trump pulled the pin on the concept.

India is the mystery case in the region because opting out of RCEP is not going to help its economy. Concerns over lower tariffs hurting local producers won the day and India moved out of the deal.

Did India also withdraw because the relations between India and China are sour, with border disputes and other issues on the rise?

But India could ultimately join RCEP – the doors for India to join the bloc will remain open in future, according to the participant countries.

Otherwise, India looks like being one of the two big losers in this move.

The RCEP group is composed of the 10 Southeast Asian (ASEAN) countries along with China, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand and Australia.

Vietnam “hosted” the final deal online and said the deal will help to lower trade tariffs between the participant countries, over time, and is less comprehensive than the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

“RCEP will soon be ratified by signatory countries and take effect, contributing to the post-COVID pandemic economic recovery,” said Nguyen Xuan Phuc, prime minister of Vietnam.

The actual legacy of President Donald Trump’s “America First” withdrawal from multilateralism and deals like TPP and RCEP could be a declining US role in world trade.

In contrast, China could be the big winner – experts say that this pact is a testament of China’s strong influence in the region.

The RCEP will lower or eliminate tariffs on various goods and services, although the scope of the agreement—essentially an extension of free trade under existing frameworks—is limited.

So, what is the biggest benefit of RCEP? The pact will create so-called rules of origin, which make it easier for companies to set up supply chains spanning multiple countries.

This is super important – it will be much easier to manufacture and sell goods in the region once RCEP comes into force.