Asia – Into India

With a World Cup cricket win, the lives of young girls in India are changing

A game such as cricket can change our society, and this is surely the case for girls and young women growing up in India.

The Indian women’s cricket team won their first World Cup, playing to a sold-out suburban Mumbai stadium of 45,000-seat capacity and drawing over 300 million views online.

Can you imagine how many girls are now dreaming of a sporting future?

In India, this win means women’s cricket is now standing on its own merit, and there will be millions of young women turning up to play the game – which in itself is a social change.

Advertising and sponsorships will flood in for this team.

But the powerful BCCI, India’s cricket governing body, must increase women’s tournaments so they have more game time and add Women’s Premier League teams to absorb new talent. Demand for local coaching and equipment will explode – and the BCCI needs to step up.

Change from the BCCI has been slow – for example, this week the board announced a bonus of 510 million rupees for the women’s team, less than half the 1.25 billion rupees it gave to the men’s team when they won the T20 World Cup last year.

They cannot ignore the level of “love of the game” among Indian women and cricket fans around the world.

Let’s hope for an India vs Australia final for the next women’s world cup!

Can the India-USA relationship survive President Trump?

We have just had 25 years of India and the USA gradually getting closer together.

But claims from US commentators that the two countries have “shared values” and “shared interests” have shown that they miss the point about India.

In the last 25 years India has been engaging with “the world” and has seen the USA as just one among many – it is today, for example, much closer than ever to countries like China, Japan and Russia.

When India joined the “Quad” (USA, Japan, India and Australia) it was celebrated in the USA (and to some extent Australia) as if India had “changed sides”. It had done no such thing.

In fact, within one week of attending a recent Quad meeting, Indian PM Narendra Modi was also high profile at the Shanghai Cooperative Organisation – the world’s largest regional organisation in terms of geographic scope and population, covering approximately 24% of the world’s total area and 42% of the world population.

At heart, this misunderstanding arises from the dramatic differences in world view of the USA and India. The USA and many of its partners see you as being on their side or against them. India, by contrast, takes a more universal view and sees many polarities, many arrangements and alternatives.

In addition, India is not generally evangelical on “democracy” and certainly does not see its mission as imposing democracy on others. It tends to accept others as they are.

Today India faces a 50% tariff from the USA, imposed, it is said, because India continues to buy oil from Russia, which is at war with Ukraine.

On this and other issues with the USA, India takes a quiet non-confronting line – understanding that anger is unlikely to work where reason has failed.

India’s favored policy of “Mult alignment”—seeking friends everywhere while refusing to forge clear single country alliances – is aggravating and confusing to Washington but is an obvious outcome of the Indian world view.

INTO INDIA predicts that the Indian response to Trump’s tariffs and rough tactics will lead to India seeking more diverse trade relationships and to be even more active in building multi alignments.

It’s just a matter of how you see the world.

What do you think?

Does “trade detached” India have an edge in the trade wars?

Countries now turning to India

India should ride out the current global “trade wars” better than the world’s biggest exporting economies.

In fact, India’s “trade detached” economy now has new opportunities.

India can now fast-track trade agreements with the EU, UK, Australia and Canada, while deepening ties with China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Asean.

It also has much to gain from reforms, such as simplifying its own tariffs, making a smoother goods and services tax (GST), improving trade processes and applying fairer quality controls.

India is the world’s fifth-largest and fastest-growing major economy.

India’s vast domestic market (around 1.5 billion people) has fuelled its growth.

All of this means India has a lower exposure to global goods trade.

With export-driven economies slowing down under tariff pressure, and India continuing to grow at 6%, it looks well placed.

“Trade detachment” is turning into an advantage.

Critics have often described global trade systems as simply colonialism in disguise – partly accounting for why India does not focus too much on trade

But “trade detachment” has come at a cost – between 1951 and 1981, per capita income grew at a sluggish pace of just 1.5% a year.

1991 is celebrated in India as the turning point.

Between 2002–03 and 2011–12, India’s exports of goods and services surged six-fold, soaring from $75bn to over $400bn.

Consider how huge this is – per capita income grew more in the first 17 years of the 21st Century than it did throughout the entire 20th Century.

This is the miracle of modern India.

However, the “make in India” program has struggled, yet also had impact as global countries move to diversify from China.

Now the European Union is reaching out to India.

In the scramble for reliable trade partners, India is suddenly attractive.

Indians shaping as the big thing in Aussie tourism

Indian tourists to Australia on the rise, spending more and trending to younger

Australia is now the second highest in India for awareness, consideration and active planning for touring Australia, just below Dubai and surrounds. The “big three” for Indians are Dubai, USA and Australia.

What is exciting about the Indian traveller market is that there is an attitudinal shift – from saving to spending.

Arrivals from India for the year 2023 were at 396,000; which were on par with 2019 levels.

Indian travellers are spending more – spending A$2.2 bn on their Australia trips (an increase of 20% when compared with 2019).

In addition to the shift to spending, there is a generational shift: Indians are travelling at a much younger age.

In my home state of Victoria and the city of Melbourne, India was Victoria’s second largest tourism market by value in 2019 and is the fastest growing international visitor market to return to Victoria following the reopening of Australia’s international borders.

Factors of greatest importance to Indian travellers are safety/ security, beautiful natural environments and value for money.

Seven in ten Indian travellers are aware of Australia as a holiday destination, with half considering travelling to Australia within the next four years and one in five who are actively planning their holiday.

Australia is strongly associated by Indians with world class beaches/ coastlines/ marine wildlife, having different and interesting wildlife, having a good range of accommodation, being family friendly and having good infrastructure.

That’s why our tourism organisations, Austrade and State Government trade offices are placing such focus on promoting Australian tourism.

It’s and exciting future for Australia.

Is India the new China?

The stunning economic rise of India is causing a re- think – in 2023, India’s GDP was US$14.54 trillion, the world’s fourth largest economy, behind the United States, China and the European Union.

But what is prompting a rethink by many countries is India’s annual GDP growth of 7.6% – now outstripping all those other countries. India could match China’s 2023 GDP of $34.64 trillion in 14 years. On top of the growth rate advantage, India’s population overtook China’s in 2023, and the “demographic dividend” is kicking in.

This growth comes with an interesting twist, no doubt occupying minds in Washington and Beijing.

India’s military expenditure is now third behind the US and China.

When it comes to regional security in the Indo-Pacific region, India now counts as a major player. In addition to defence spending, location of this large landmass (the world’s seventh largest) means India is pivotal to trade routes crossing the Indian Ocean, as well as being close to China, the preeminent trading nation at the heart of the Indo-Pacific region.

Someone who is well aware of the growing power of India is of course Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a strong leader who stands as an equal with Chinese President Xi Jinping and soon-to-be President of the USA, Donald Trump.

The big question for countries like Australia and New Zealand is where do we fit in with this new scenario, who is listening to us, what does emerging “multi-lateralism” (championed by India) mean for us and how can future trade be assured?

Our diplomats and trade people are well placed and respected in New Delhi – but as the position of India becomes stronger, the diplomatic skills of both Australia and New Zealand will be needed to define our place in what is a new order.

Thanks to Chris Ogden, Associate Professor in Global Studies, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau, for some of the above data.

Australia sets impressive trade records which newsrooms refuse to report

Australians are not good at celebrating good news – and some of the good news they don’t even get to see on major media.

Trade performance is a good example.

Australia has an outstanding national trade body – Austrade – with talented people around the world promoting our products and services.

In many countries – including India – most of our states also have Government offices working hard to build trade and investment.

They have been incredibly successful.

Of the 35 advanced countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) who reported last year’s exports to the World Bank, only three increased exports relative to gross domestic product (GDP) over 2022.

Of these, Australia’s expansion was the strongest.

The World Bank also affirms Australia’s ascendancy.

The World Bank’s development indicators show export and import outcomes for 138 economies from 1974 to 2023.

The World Bank measured Australia’s 2023 exports at a record 26.7% of GDP.

The success story continues…

Of the 35 advanced OECD member economies for which the World Bank has recorded last year’s export volumes, 17 experienced a decline. These include normally robust economies Ireland, Germany, the United Kingdom, Netherlands and Belgium.

Only 18 increased their exports over the previous year. Just four managed an improvement of more than 5%. Australia ranked third with 6.5% behind Denmark and Costa Rica.

Well done all those Australian providers of quality export goods and services.

Well done, Aussie!

Might change your life – or you might just have fun. Gurudev coming to Australia in October

“An Evening with Gurudev Sri Sri Ravi Shankar” is coming to Melbourne, Sydney and Perth in October.

I love this Art of Living program.

If you can get tickets – go! For Melbourne:

An Evening with Gurudev Sri Sri Ravi Shankar

For me, it involves breathing techniques that lead to such a relaxed state of bliss. And attendees are fun people to be around.

At second level of what I like, Gurudev does not ever complicate things – he provides simple wisdom.

A Life Changed – think about this quote:

In my 20s, I was consumed by depression and everything felt hopeless. One day, my sister told me about a nearby event featuring a talk and meditation session with Sri Sri Ravi Shankar. As soon as I walked in, I felt something shift inside me. His words seemed to answer the questions in my mind, and I was filled with peace I had never known before.

After the session, meeting Gurudev in person was an experience beyond words. It was as if a heavy burden had been lifted off my shoulders. The bliss and boundless energy I experienced stayed with me for months. When this initially faded, I began addressing my depression, but this time with a much calmer and more peaceful approach. Because I learnt the SKY breathing practice with the Art of Living, it has changed my life for the better. I have accomplished things I once thought impossible and have found inner peace.

https://www.artofliving.org/au-en

How India can become the “next China”

Globalization worked so well for China, but is stressed today

It’s complicated.

Mainly because of the rise of protectionism worldwide.

The Chinese miracle rode on the wave of globalization that began around 1980 and lasted until the 2008 global financial market crisis.

Globalization has come under severe stress lately, according to Amit Kumar, a research analyst with the Takshashila Institution’s Indo-Pacific studies program.

Weaponizing trade has left nations increasingly wary of economic coercion.

Self-sufficiency in some form or other is back in fashion. PM Modi is super keen on self-sufficiency for India.

If globalisation is too restricted, India’s ambitions might be thwarted. India could well have shot itself in the foot here, with it’s own anti-globalism and scepticism on international trade deals.

Gains for India will however be derived from the ongoing de-risking and “China plus one” strategies.

India – unlike China during its growth – faces tough competition from Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia. India attracted 15% of European investment diversifying away from China, but it fell behind ASEAN, which attracted 21% of the rerouted investments.

India is also lagging on ease of doing business. INTO INDIA has praised India’s progress, but must admit that it is now too slow. Ease of doing business has to leap ahead.

India currently contributes 16% of the global economic growth, as opposed to China’s 34%. The IMF predicts India’s share to rise to 18% in the next five years.

As China witnesses a decline in its share owing to its economic slowdown, we are led to conclude that India should emerge as the leading engine of growth.

With one reservation – “Ease of doing business’ could be the key.

Perhaps India CAN become the ‘next China’ and drive global growth

India’s consumer base is rapidly growing – pic from a Delhi mall

Since INTO INDIA has been involved with India, the mantra from economists and diplomats has been that “India is not the next China “. Is that about to change?

It could be, according to Amit Kumar, a research analyst with the Takshashila Institution’s Indo-Pacific studies program.

China has been top of mind for good reason – contributing more than a quarter to global gross domestic product expansion between 1990 and 2020. In the period from 2013 to 2021, China contributed almost 39% of global GDP growth — 13% more than the G7 countries combined.

How could India become the next China?

India would need to sustain a near double-digit growth rate for nearly three decades.

It would need to integrate with the global manufacturing supply chain, transition into an export powerhouse and attract enormous foreign investment.

But 40 years ago, we would have said the same things about China.

China’s rise from the 1970’s was boosted because of the deepening U.S.-Soviet rivalry and the Sino-Soviet split, prompted the US and the West to open up to China in 1971.

This is happening now with India.

Due to the deepening strategic competition with China, Beijing’s expanding diplomatic and economic clout, its belligerent foreign policy and economic coercion, has sparked concerns of overdependence and strategic vulnerability in the West.

India is emerging (has emerged?) as the preferred partner for the West.

We should not forget that China’s growth was also driven by global businesses looking for cheaper manufacturing.

This is now happening with India. Global firms now see India as an alternative to China.

The Indian Government has already supported high-profile projects involving the manufacturing of iPhones and the assembly of semiconductors – sending an “invitation” to others.

China also had a rapidly growing consumer base. No other Asian country had such a base – until India.

India has the second-largest consumer base – defined as people spending above $12 a day – of over 500 million, second only to China’s 900 million. Estimates show that by 2030, India’s consumer base will expand to 773 million, trailing only China’s 1.062 billion.

The gap between China and India will only shrink from here on.

NEXT BLOG – What India has to do to become the next China.

Just quietly, the “gig economy” is changing how we work and India is a good example

India’s gig economy is rapidly expanding, with predictions that the workforce will grow from 7 million in 2021 to 23.5 million by 2030.

This growth is stunning and signals a major shift in how we work.

INTO INDIA sees the gig economy as offering flexibility for both sides, remote working and other opportunities.

But the reality of being self employed is that you can also be “self unemployed”.

You can see why employers are so keen on this – providing access to a diverse talent pool while cutting costs. As companies embrace gig work, sectors like pharmaceuticals and technology are increasingly relying on freelance experts to meet their needs.

The gig workforce is growing – but it is still a tiny percentage of the total workforce – in India expecting to go from 1.5% in 2021-22 to 4.1% by the 2029-2030 financial year.

The pandemic is responsible for most recent changes in everything – and this is no exception.

Globally, the gig economy is expected to reach a gross volume of $455 billion by 2023, up from $368 billion in 2021. In India, there is a noticeable increase in organized sector gig work compared to a decline in the unorganized sector, reflecting a growing trend towards investing in gig workers.

INTO INDIA notes that trust between gig workers and employers is improving, with longer project durations becoming more common. Kapil Joshi, Deputy CEO of Ques Corp, observes that the average tenure for freelance projects has increased from 9 months to over a year since the pandemic, indicating growing trust in freelance coders for larger projects.

Historically, “flexibility” has meant flexibility for employers at the expense of employees. But this one might be different, because employees (some) are demanding gig work in preference to full time jobs.

We’ll see how this one goes over time.