Does Australia need to have a public holiday for Diwali?

As the Indian diaspora continues to grow in Australia, you can see Indian culture such as Diwali having a big impact in communities across the nation.

Australia is home to a rapidly expanding Indian community.

According to an MEA report, approximately 1 million Overseas Indians live in Australia. The Indian diaspora is the second-largest and fastest-growing in Australia. As of September 2023, there are 122,391 Indian students, making them the second-largest group of foreign-born students in the nation.

Meanwhile, in California, Governor Gavin Newsom has signed Assembly Bill 268 into law, putting Diwali on the list of 12 state holidays. The new law, which will go into effect next year, allows community colleges and public schools to close on Diwali, and state government employees can choose to take the day off.

Diwali is such a charming and engaging event – and celebrates the triumph of light over dark, good over evil – it is an uplifting message for our times.

INTO INDIA would love to hear from you – do we need a public holiday for Diwali?

Can the India-USA relationship survive President Trump?

We have just had 25 years of India and the USA gradually getting closer together.

But claims from US commentators that the two countries have “shared values” and “shared interests” have shown that they miss the point about India.

In the last 25 years India has been engaging with “the world” and has seen the USA as just one among many – it is today, for example, much closer than ever to countries like China, Japan and Russia.

When India joined the “Quad” (USA, Japan, India and Australia) it was celebrated in the USA (and to some extent Australia) as if India had “changed sides”. It had done no such thing.

In fact, within one week of attending a recent Quad meeting, Indian PM Narendra Modi was also high profile at the Shanghai Cooperative Organisation – the world’s largest regional organisation in terms of geographic scope and population, covering approximately 24% of the world’s total area and 42% of the world population.

At heart, this misunderstanding arises from the dramatic differences in world view of the USA and India. The USA and many of its partners see you as being on their side or against them. India, by contrast, takes a more universal view and sees many polarities, many arrangements and alternatives.

In addition, India is not generally evangelical on “democracy” and certainly does not see its mission as imposing democracy on others. It tends to accept others as they are.

Today India faces a 50% tariff from the USA, imposed, it is said, because India continues to buy oil from Russia, which is at war with Ukraine.

On this and other issues with the USA, India takes a quiet non-confronting line – understanding that anger is unlikely to work where reason has failed.

India’s favored policy of “Mult alignment”—seeking friends everywhere while refusing to forge clear single country alliances – is aggravating and confusing to Washington but is an obvious outcome of the Indian world view.

INTO INDIA predicts that the Indian response to Trump’s tariffs and rough tactics will lead to India seeking more diverse trade relationships and to be even more active in building multi alignments.

It’s just a matter of how you see the world.

What do you think?

Does “trade detached” India have an edge in the trade wars?

Countries now turning to India

India should ride out the current global “trade wars” better than the world’s biggest exporting economies.

In fact, India’s “trade detached” economy now has new opportunities.

India can now fast-track trade agreements with the EU, UK, Australia and Canada, while deepening ties with China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Asean.

It also has much to gain from reforms, such as simplifying its own tariffs, making a smoother goods and services tax (GST), improving trade processes and applying fairer quality controls.

India is the world’s fifth-largest and fastest-growing major economy.

India’s vast domestic market (around 1.5 billion people) has fuelled its growth.

All of this means India has a lower exposure to global goods trade.

With export-driven economies slowing down under tariff pressure, and India continuing to grow at 6%, it looks well placed.

“Trade detachment” is turning into an advantage.

Critics have often described global trade systems as simply colonialism in disguise – partly accounting for why India does not focus too much on trade

But “trade detachment” has come at a cost – between 1951 and 1981, per capita income grew at a sluggish pace of just 1.5% a year.

1991 is celebrated in India as the turning point.

Between 2002–03 and 2011–12, India’s exports of goods and services surged six-fold, soaring from $75bn to over $400bn.

Consider how huge this is – per capita income grew more in the first 17 years of the 21st Century than it did throughout the entire 20th Century.

This is the miracle of modern India.

However, the “make in India” program has struggled, yet also had impact as global countries move to diversify from China.

Now the European Union is reaching out to India.

In the scramble for reliable trade partners, India is suddenly attractive.

Is India the new China?

The stunning economic rise of India is causing a re- think – in 2023, India’s GDP was US$14.54 trillion, the world’s fourth largest economy, behind the United States, China and the European Union.

But what is prompting a rethink by many countries is India’s annual GDP growth of 7.6% – now outstripping all those other countries. India could match China’s 2023 GDP of $34.64 trillion in 14 years. On top of the growth rate advantage, India’s population overtook China’s in 2023, and the “demographic dividend” is kicking in.

This growth comes with an interesting twist, no doubt occupying minds in Washington and Beijing.

India’s military expenditure is now third behind the US and China.

When it comes to regional security in the Indo-Pacific region, India now counts as a major player. In addition to defence spending, location of this large landmass (the world’s seventh largest) means India is pivotal to trade routes crossing the Indian Ocean, as well as being close to China, the preeminent trading nation at the heart of the Indo-Pacific region.

Someone who is well aware of the growing power of India is of course Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a strong leader who stands as an equal with Chinese President Xi Jinping and soon-to-be President of the USA, Donald Trump.

The big question for countries like Australia and New Zealand is where do we fit in with this new scenario, who is listening to us, what does emerging “multi-lateralism” (championed by India) mean for us and how can future trade be assured?

Our diplomats and trade people are well placed and respected in New Delhi – but as the position of India becomes stronger, the diplomatic skills of both Australia and New Zealand will be needed to define our place in what is a new order.

Thanks to Chris Ogden, Associate Professor in Global Studies, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau, for some of the above data.

Australia sets impressive trade records which newsrooms refuse to report

Australians are not good at celebrating good news – and some of the good news they don’t even get to see on major media.

Trade performance is a good example.

Australia has an outstanding national trade body – Austrade – with talented people around the world promoting our products and services.

In many countries – including India – most of our states also have Government offices working hard to build trade and investment.

They have been incredibly successful.

Of the 35 advanced countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) who reported last year’s exports to the World Bank, only three increased exports relative to gross domestic product (GDP) over 2022.

Of these, Australia’s expansion was the strongest.

The World Bank also affirms Australia’s ascendancy.

The World Bank’s development indicators show export and import outcomes for 138 economies from 1974 to 2023.

The World Bank measured Australia’s 2023 exports at a record 26.7% of GDP.

The success story continues…

Of the 35 advanced OECD member economies for which the World Bank has recorded last year’s export volumes, 17 experienced a decline. These include normally robust economies Ireland, Germany, the United Kingdom, Netherlands and Belgium.

Only 18 increased their exports over the previous year. Just four managed an improvement of more than 5%. Australia ranked third with 6.5% behind Denmark and Costa Rica.

Well done all those Australian providers of quality export goods and services.

Well done, Aussie!

How India can become the “next China”

Globalization worked so well for China, but is stressed today

It’s complicated.

Mainly because of the rise of protectionism worldwide.

The Chinese miracle rode on the wave of globalization that began around 1980 and lasted until the 2008 global financial market crisis.

Globalization has come under severe stress lately, according to Amit Kumar, a research analyst with the Takshashila Institution’s Indo-Pacific studies program.

Weaponizing trade has left nations increasingly wary of economic coercion.

Self-sufficiency in some form or other is back in fashion. PM Modi is super keen on self-sufficiency for India.

If globalisation is too restricted, India’s ambitions might be thwarted. India could well have shot itself in the foot here, with it’s own anti-globalism and scepticism on international trade deals.

Gains for India will however be derived from the ongoing de-risking and “China plus one” strategies.  

India – unlike China during its growth – faces tough competition from Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia. India attracted 15% of European investment diversifying away from China, but it fell behind ASEAN, which attracted 21% of the rerouted investments.

India is also lagging on ease of doing business. INTO INDIA has praised India’s progress, but must admit that it is now too slow. Ease of doing business has to leap ahead.

India currently contributes 16% of the global economic growth, as opposed to China’s 34%. The IMF predicts India’s share to rise to 18% in the next five years.

As China witnesses a decline in its share owing to its economic slowdown, we are led to conclude that India should emerge as the leading engine of growth.

With one reservation – “Ease of doing business’ could be the key.

Perhaps India CAN become the ‘next China’ and drive global growth

India’s consumer base is rapidly growing – pic from a Delhi mall

Since INTO INDIA has been involved with India, the mantra from economists and diplomats has been that “India is not the next China “. Is that about to change?

It could be, according to Amit Kumar, a research analyst with the Takshashila Institution’s Indo-Pacific studies program.

China has been top of mind for good reason – contributing more than a quarter to global gross domestic product expansion between 1990 and 2020. In the period from 2013 to 2021, China contributed almost 39% of global GDP growth — 13% more than the G7 countries combined.

How could India become the next China?

India would need to sustain a near double-digit growth rate for nearly three decades.

It would need to integrate with the global manufacturing supply chain, transition into an export powerhouse and attract enormous foreign investment.

But 40 years ago, we would have said the same things about China.

China’s rise from the 1970’s was boosted because of the deepening U.S.-Soviet rivalry and the Sino-Soviet split, prompted the US and the West to open up to China in 1971.

This is happening now with India.

Due to the deepening strategic competition with China, Beijing’s expanding diplomatic and economic clout, its belligerent foreign policy and economic coercion, has sparked concerns of overdependence and strategic vulnerability in the West.

India is emerging (has emerged?) as the preferred partner for the West.

We should not forget that China’s growth was also driven by global businesses looking for cheaper manufacturing.

This is now happening with India. Global firms now see India as an alternative to China.

The Indian Government has already supported high-profile projects involving the manufacturing of iPhones and the assembly of semiconductors – sending an “invitation” to others.

China also had a rapidly growing consumer base. No other Asian country had such a base – until India.

India has the second-largest consumer base – defined as people spending above $12 a day – of over 500 million, second only to China’s 900 million. Estimates show that by 2030, India’s consumer base will expand to 773 million, trailing only China’s 1.062 billion.

The gap between China and India will only shrink from here on.

NEXT BLOG – What India has to do to become the next China.

Learning a lot about networking within different countries

Andy Molinsky is a professor of organizational behaviour at Brandeis University’s International Business School. He regularly writes for the Harvard Business Review, and his work has been featured in the Economist, Fast Company, Fortune, the Financial Times, the Boston Globe, NPR, and the Voice of America. 

He recently did some simple research which put a spotlight on how networking varies across cultures.

– Kanya is an MBA student in the United States who grew up in Thailand. She works in the construction industry and is 26 years old.

– Sandeep is an IT professional from India with an MBA degree from the United States. He is 28 years old.

– Mohamed is a security professional from Egypt pursuing an MBA degree in the United States. He is 24 years old.

Here are their answers:

1. Is networking common in your culture?

Kanya (Thailand): “No – it’s not common at all in Thailand. I have never been to networking events in my country before, other than a specific career fair. We don’t have any organizations that set up networking events.”

Sandeep (India): “Yes, it’s somewhat common, but only in certain situations. Indian culture is opening up to the idea of socializing and partaking in networking activities. As there is an influence of the western culture and the emergence of multinational companies is becoming evident, more and more Indian students and employees are making themselves available for networking events.”

Mohamed (Egypt): “The Arab culture is one that is more personal. You typically do business with those you know personally or have at least met. This makes networking vital in the Arab world. Networking is done in both business and non-business settings much like the West.”

2. Where does networking happen in your culture?

Kanya (Thailand): “Only career fairs provide us with the chance to meet with employers.”

Sandeep (India): “It can happen in many different places – career fairs, conferences, and even at unexpected places like parties or other informal get-together. Social parties, charities, functions are hot spots for youngsters and experienced employees alike to mingle with representatives from companies. I saw it happening in my workplace!”

Mohamed (Egypt): “There are both formal and informal settings to network. I have personally found that connections made through informal networking are more beneficial than those made in a career fair. This could be at a social outing or the informal portion of a conference.”

3. In your culture, what matters most: your resume and skills, the way you present yourself during a networking conversation, or both?

Kanya (Thailand): “When we meet employers at a career fair, they are not usually interested in our resumes. They want to talk with us about our experiences.”

Sandeep (India): “A lot of companies pay special interest to the resume of an individual, encompassing all the skills and expertise he or she has in his or her previous assignments. But at the same time, a lot of companies also look at how an individual carries himself or herself. Confidence is a big positive sign for many employers who are looking forward to hiring someone who can meet expectations without breaking a sweat; a fast learner perhaps.”

Mohamed (Egypt): “Both are crucial, but I believe the way you present yourself is more important. The personal presentation isn’t just a foot in the door; it’s a first interview. Your resume and skills are the second round interviews.”

4. If you are talking with a potential employer at a networking situation in your culture, how appropriate is it to talk about yourself and your background?

Kanya (Thailand): “It is not wrong to talk about yourself at career fair because that is why you are there. But it’s different than in the United States. In the US, you promote yourself and talk about your positive qualities. In Thailand, we’re not used to that. We don’t promote ourselves like in the United States. Instead, we just share our experiences and provide additional details if the employer asks about it.”

Sandeep (India): “You can mention something about your background, even if the employer doesn’t ask, as long as you do not sound too conceited. In the contemporary work environment in India, employees are becoming smart and impromptu in their demeanor. They like to boast, if I can say, a bit about their past jobs, their skills sets. But some overconfident employees and students blow it!”

Mohamed (Egypt): “This depends on the context. Given the right employer, job, and situation you can talk about yourself. I think it is more common for those coworkers to discuss personal matters amongst one another than with your supervisor.”

INTO INDIA comment – Networking varies across cultures – everything about communicating and doing business varies across cultures. It pays to be ready!

https://www.andymolinsky.com/

What will a third term for Indian PM Narendra Modi mean for India and the world?

 INTO INDIA had three big reactions to the Indian elections:

1) Democracy is alive and well in India; 650 million votes cast over a 6 week election process – truly a remarkably strong democracy!

2) Indians want jobs, jobs, and jobs; this is why manufacturing has become so central to India’s economy – the swing away from the ruling BJP suggests PM Modi has to do more on jobs.

3) the Indian voter will expect the government to keep growing the economy – and show why that is a benefit for all Indians.

The only other Indian Prime Minister to win three five-year terms was the first – PM Nehru.

This has been a much closer election than predicted – and probably has given the ruling BJP and PM Modi much to think about. Of course, INTO INDIA notes that long term office holders generally face an anti-incumbency mood.

Congrats to Indian PM Narendra Modi – we have always called him ACTION MAN and in his third term he will need to maintain the action.

We expect a big focus this term on manufacturing, physical infrastructure, digital infrastructure and energy transition.

Australian banker says “this is India’s century”

This is the best, strongest vote of confidence in India from one of Australia’s leading corporations.

Mark Whelan, Group Executive at ANZ: “The time is very much appropriate to grow here. If you look at the basics of the Indian economy and where its place is in the world, this is India’s century”.

Rufus Pinto, Country Head, India, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, outlined the rapid recent growth of ANZ in India: “ANZ India started our Institutional Banking operations in 2011. 13 years of existence across three branches today with over 80 bankers supporting the top Financial Institutions; Local Large Corporates and MNC’s working together with our home markets of Australia and New Zealand, and ~30 markets in our global network providing our clients a seamless agile offering.

“ANZ in India today house almost 20% of our global workforce, with our Global Capability Centre in Bengaluru,” he said.

This is change on a grand scale for a leading Aussie company.

Yes, this is India’s century.

Time to get on board?