Moody’s is the most pessimistic, predicting Indian GDP to grow at just 5.8% for Financial Year 2020.
But s the above chart shows, many others are predicting declines.
This is a challenge for Indian PM Narendra Modi who has pinned his future on sustaining growth and lifting more out of poverty.
Citigroup has been optimistic on India, predicting that by 2050 India would be the world’s biggest economy. That was based on an annual growth rate of 6.5% over 40 years.
But 2019 has seen a slowdown to around 5% growth.
The one constant in India is population growth – around 20% per decade.
While the services and manufacturing sectors are seeing good growth, more can be achieve and infrastructure across the board still needs surgery. Daily power outages are common in major cities, education outcomes disappoint and healthcare is lagging. Not to mention roads and so on.
PM Modi needs a trigger – something that can draw the business and investment communities together to regain the excitement of the India growth story.
It is a major challenge.
Author: Stephen Manallack
Former President, Australia India Business Council, Victoria and Author, You Can Communicate; Riding the Elephant; Soft Skills for a Flat World (published by Tata McGraw-Hill INDIA); Communicating Your Personal Brand.
Director, EastWest Academy Pty Ltd and Trainer/Speaker/Mentor in Leadership, Communication and Cross Cultural Communication.
Passionate campaigner for closer western relations with India.
Stephen Manallack is a specialist on “Doing Business with India” and advisor/trainer on “Cross-Cultural Understanding”. He is a Director of EastWest Academy Pty Ltd which provides strategic advice and counsel regarding business relations with India.
A regular speaker in India on leadership and global communication, his most recent speaking tour included a speech to students of the elite Indian university, Amity University, in Noida. He also spoke at a major Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) global summit, the PR Consultants Association of India in Delhi, the Symbiosis University in Pune and Cross-Cultural Training for Sundaram Business Services in Chennai. He has visited India on business missions on 10 occasions and led three major trade missions there. He provides cross-cultural training – Asia and the west.
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