Moody’s is the most pessimistic, predicting Indian GDP to grow at just 5.8% for Financial Year 2020.
But s the above chart shows, many others are predicting declines.
This is a challenge for Indian PM Narendra Modi who has pinned his future on sustaining growth and lifting more out of poverty.
Citigroup has been optimistic on India, predicting that by 2050 India would be the world’s biggest economy. That was based on an annual growth rate of 6.5% over 40 years.
But 2019 has seen a slowdown to around 5% growth.
The one constant in India is population growth – around 20% per decade.
While the services and manufacturing sectors are seeing good growth, more can be achieve and infrastructure across the board still needs surgery. Daily power outages are common in major cities, education outcomes disappoint and healthcare is lagging. Not to mention roads and so on.
PM Modi needs a trigger – something that can draw the business and investment communities together to regain the excitement of the India growth story.
It is a major challenge.