Uncategorized – Into India

Trade deals often read like thrillers and spy novels

The India-USA trade deal, recently announced, is up there with the best thrillers – who got who? Who won? Did anybody sell out?

And this one finished with a flourish and hint of a future drama – the Indian Commerce Minister, grilled on the likely higher US imports, responded that competitiveness of local industry should win over protectionism. More drama ahead.

India’s PM Modi and USA’s President Trump are mega leaders – macho in style.

But Trump effective 7 February lifted the punitive 25% tariff on India on the promise of no further purchases of Ruddian oil. Mysteriously PM Modi has made no comment on the oil.

INTO INDIA cannot side with critics who suggest Modi has bowed to US pressure.

We see this as a step in the right direction. Cheap Russian oil was always “old India strategy”. Perhaps the new strategy is access to the world’s largest market – the USA.

This is a win for pragmatism – after all, the USA is India’s biggest trading partner and source of capital; and for the US, India is another step in its wish to hedge China’s rise.

Winners and losers? Who knows. Perhaps we have a long-term strategic shift this time.

To succeed in Asia, you have to trade the “I” for the “Us” – a David Thomas cross cultural insight

INTO INDIA has consistently called for greater cross-cultural preparation for Aussie firms going into India (and Asia). Here is an absolute gem on this topic.

Read on from DAVID THOMAS…

From an early age, I was taught that the squeaky door is the one that gets the oil. This is typical western thinking. We’re raised to be soloists – standing out, grabbing the spotlight, speaking with confidence and getting the deal done in record time (preferably before lunchtime!).

But as soon as you step into Asia, you realise that the squeaky door doesn’t get greased – it gets replaced. The “We” reigns supreme. It’s a collective world where harmony and trusted relationships are the engine of commerce.

While a Westerner is busy trying to be the “disruptor,” the local players are busy building consensus. If you push too hard or make someone “lose face” just to prove a point, you haven’t won a negotiation – you’ve closed a door forever. I’ve seen this happen myself and it often comes as a surprise (until you’ve thought really hard about what happened).

In an individualistic culture, the contract is the start of the relationship. Here in Asia, the relationship IS the contract.

It’s the same principle as that left-hand turn in local traffic; it only works because everyone is subconsciously looking out for the group as a whole. If everyone drove with a “Me first” attitude, the whole city would grind to a halt.

To succeed in Asia, you have to trade the “I” for the “Us”. You have to learn that fitting into the rhythm is far more powerful than trying to beat the drum yourself. And just like navigating those chaotic streets, you certainly won’t feel that pulse from a distance!

REACH OUT TO DAVID – davidthomas@thinkglobal.com.au

India relies on a friendly USA for progress and peace – but Trump is making this difficult

INTO INDIA last month asked this question – can the USA-India releationship survive President Trump?

This month the answer is even less certain.

New Delhi has some fears on this front – knowing that India’s growing economy and innovation needs a friendly USA. Even more so, the India-USA relationship is a key to ensuring an Asia NOT dominated by China.

India wants agreement with the USA.

Without some effort from Washington, India will just have to find new relationships to secure its position in Asia.

If India and the United States become more distant to each other, both would have a weaker hand to play when it comes to China.

India is anxious to reduce its reliance on China as a source of supply and also its reliance on the USA as a source of demand.

Trump is softening his approach to China while he goes harder on India.

There are serious levels of concern in New Delhi about this.

First, the China border problem continues to fester.

Second, both the USA and China are moving closer to Pakistan = which is also a volatile border for India.

Corporate India seems to have made up its mind – several of India’s largest corporations are seeking a presence or partnerships in China.

But political India continues to look for new friends.

Beyond the Hype: My Take on Navigating AI with Clarity

This is INTO INDIA with a difference – in this blog I am handing over to my friend Vinay Sarawagi who has written the clearest summary of how you should proceed with AI. Vinay is the Founder, The Media GCC | Mindful Media l AI Trust and Safety and is a former Senior Vice President – Digital at The Times Group.

READ HIS REPORT ON “BEYOND THE HYPE”:

Artificial intelligence is the most transformative tech of the century. This doesn’t change another fact: we’re in a hype cycle. Snake oil is being sold in AI’s name.

The Big Tech Reality Check

Organizations and governments are overwhelmed by AI. Smart money sticks to first principles.

Watch what organisations like Apple and Google do. When they slow certain AI implementations, despite hundreds of billions in revenue at stake, it tells you something critical. The technology shows bright sparks. It’s not there yet.

This isn’t about legacy companies being outpaced by emerging tech. Google has done more AI research than most universities combined. These companies aren’t behind the curve. They’re mindful of the gap.

When an AI startup claims breakthrough capabilities that Apple, Google, or Microsoft can’t match, take it with a bucket of salt. These tech giants possess both the expertise and cash reserves, running into hundreds of billions, to acquire any capability they lack.

First Principles in an Age of Disruption

Stop panicking. Avoid emotional responses that swing between overwhelming fear and outright denial.

Two priorities matter: educate yourself your teams on AI’s capabilities and limitations. Stick to your business fundamentals.

Market Psychology and the Innovation Cycle

Markets behave like human psychology. A decade ago, predicting a tech that could replace half of all jobs within 2-3 decades would have seemed absurd. Most believed fundamental innovations were complete. Only incremental progress remained possible.

Then ChatGPT arrived. A public-facing tool that gave everyone a glimpse into generative AI’s power. BOOM! Gold rush mentality.

Markets respond with boom and bust cycles. This process rediscovers the new normal. The challenge: distinguishing hype from real potential while living through it.

This requires a multi-dimensional approach. Grounded, pragmatic, sharp, incisive, data-driven. Also lateral and far-reaching. Finding the sweet spot demands all these perspectives simultaneously.

Separating Signal from Noise

AI will redefine everything we know about our world. True statement.

Today, a lot of AI marketing is snake oil. Also true.

Develop filters. Differentiate real capability from hype. Know what’s right for your business adoption strategy. Always return to first principles.

Strategic Implementation Framework

One week of data can blind you. One month isn’t much better. Long-term data matters. Qualitative benchmarks matter too.

When trillion dollar tech giants proceed cautiously, pay attention. Their restraint reflects deep understanding of current boundaries, not innovation failure.

The future belongs to those who harness AI’s power while avoiding its pitfalls.

vinay@thegcc.media

Australia has a record number of Federal MPs from an Asian background

Pictured is Zanetta Mascarenhas (Swan, WA), an MP originally from India

After the recent elections, there are now eight MPs from a South Asian background and six of Chinese background in the Australian Parliament – which now has a record number of MPs from Asia.

This is a good outcome – but they still only account for about seven per cent of the Federal Parliament compared with about 17 per cent of the population.

Good result – but we need more!

The governing Labor Party will now have six MPs with some Chinese ancestry in its federal ranks after the election, led by Foreign Minister Penny Wong who was the only Chinese background Labor MP in 2019.

They are pre-existing MPs Sally Sitou (Reid, NSW) and Sam Lim (Tangney, WA) along with the newly elected MPs Zhi Soon (Banks, NSW); Julie-Ann Campbell (Moreton, Queensland); and Gabriel Ng (Menzies, Victoria).

The Government (Labor) now also has four federal MPs of south Asian descent in incumbents Cassandra Fernando (Holt, Victoria) from Sri Lanka; Zanetta Mascarenhas (Swan, WA) from India; Varun Ghosh (WA Senator) from India; and newcomer Ash Ambihaipahar (Barton NSW) from Sri Lanka.

The conservative parties have two MPs of Indian background in NSW Senator Dave Sharma and newly elected Leon Rebello (McPherson, Qld). The Greens have a Pakistan background Senator in Mehreen Faruqi and former Labor Senator turned Independent Fatima Payman is from Afghanistan.

Incumbent Independent Vietnamese MP Dai Le (Fowler, NSW) was returned to Parliament with a small increase in support after an unusual diaspora election battle with Labor’s fellow Vietnamese candidate Tu Le.

This is now a record number of Federal MPs from an Asian background and possibly the largest number ever from a non-Anglo background.

Australia is a major MULTICULTURAL society, and this is beginning to be reflected in our Parliament.

(SOURCE – thank you to Asia Society Australia for the above data)

Things are changing fast in this world as India rises

You could say it has truly become a “funny world”.

Now we hear that one of the world’s leading quality car makers – Japan – is in the top five export destinations for Made-in-India cars.

Key exporters include Suzuki Motor Corporation and Honda Motor Company’s local units, which are increasingly positioning India as a production hub.

According to commerce ministry data collated by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), vehicle shipments to Japan rose to US$ 616.45 million in the first nine months of FY25.

Maruti Suzuki began exporting its Jimny Sport Utility Vehicle (SUV) to Japan in January, signaling an acceleration of this trend.

Honda Cars India exported 45,167 units of its Elevate SUV, mainly to Japan, more than double its domestic sales.

Maruti Suzuki’s Fronx and Jimny SUVs are also available in Japan, with the Jimny generating around 50,000 orders within four days of launch.

Yamaha plans to export premium motorcycles to Japan, leveraging India’s lower sourcing and labour costs.

While my thought was “funny world” – my considered reflection was “well done India for entering one of the world’s toughest and highest quality markets”.

Growth in “sports culture” part of India’s push of soft power and hopes of hosting the 2036 Olympics

Now Indian PM Modi is chasing an Olympic Games for India

Sport is on the mind of the Government of Indian Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi.

No doubt the next election he and the BJP face will have a big sports focus.

And words are being backed up by action – the Indian Government has a US$474 million sports budget this year.

PM Modi has always been ambitious for India – and his spending will create a sporting infrastructure boost to underpin the India push to host the 2036 Olympic Games.

A future Olympic Games could capture the minds and pride of Indians everywhere, including the large Indian diaspora here in Australia.

PM Modi recently stated that India’s soft power will grow with the development of a sports culture. Speaking at the inauguration of the Khelo India Youth Games, he highlighted the government’s focus on modernising sports infrastructure with the goal of hosting the 2036 Olympic Games.

A significant portion of the US$ 474 million sports budget for the year is being allocated to this purpose.

India has submitted a Letter of Intent to the International Olympic Committee to host the Games and is competing with countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, South Korea, Indonesia and Chile for the hosting rights.

The sports budget has increased more than threefold in the past decade, with over 1,000 Khelo India centres now operating across the country, including more than three dozen in Bihar.

Australia has been doing well via cricket – opening new training facilities and programs in India and chasing other collaborations.

PM Modi’s big sports spend shows the timing is good for all areas of sports in Australia to get over to India and actively participate in this growing sector.

India is available – but are WE capable?

Here is the paradox – Indian growth means there is demand for almost every product and service – but Australian business is not over there selling hard.

Perhaps we Aussies do not have an export mentality?

This was one possible reason canvassed today when I met with Leigh Howard, CEO of Asialink Business.

We agreed that there is still a need to sell the vision of exporting to India.

Asialink Business is really about building “Asia capability” and is keen to do more for the SME sector. You can sign up for an online “Doing Business with India” session this coming Wednesday here – https://asialink.unimelb.edu.au/business/course/academy-intro-india/

We also discussed how our universities could be paving the way for the rest of us to make it in India – their presence is now “bricks and mortar” and both Melbourne University and Deakin University are showing the way.

So, are you capable? Sign up now.

The population paradox in India

Wonderful article by Sunaina Kumar in THE INTERPRETER for the Lowy Institute.

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/population-paradox-india#msdynttrid=JLdBTs_-HnNZRPTGkUBRWQGZleYD6CL9EmGS-LibtvE

India is growing in some states, declining in others – but rapidly ageing all over. Here are some elements of the “population paradox”:

1. In April 2023 when India reached 1,425,775,850 people, it surpassed China’s population to become the most populous country in the world.

2. India’s population is expected to grow for several decades and could peak at 1.7 billion by the 2060s, while China’s population is already in decline, according to UN estimates.

3. The total fertility rate in India has declined from 3.4 children per woman in 1992-93 to 2.0 children per woman in 2019-21.

4. Population in India will however continue to grow, concentrated mostly in the northern states of the country on the basis of demographic momentum, a phenomenon that results from a large number of young adults in childbearing years.

5. A north-south divide – population is growing in the north and declining in the south.

6. Compared to the north, the five southern states of India are economically more advanced and have been highly successful in slowing population growth by focusing on development and women’s empowerment.

7. India has one of the youngest populations in the world: 65 per cent of the country is under the age of 35.

8. By 2030 one out of every five working-age people in the world is projected to be Indian.

9. To reap the demographic dividend, India will need to add 7.85 million jobs every year until 2030.

10. Alongside this phenomenon, India like China is rapidly ageing, which is linked with declining fertility, falling mortality risks and higher life expectancy in both countries.

The speed and scale of ageing is a global concern but in a country like India, it is a race against time, as the country will need to get richer before it gets older.

Sorting out priorities given the many levels of this “paradox” is a task for Governments and policymakers.

Trump’s “transactional and mercantilist” approach to trade will test India in 2025

India at risk as Trump’s trade policies do not distinguish between friend and foe.

One certainty of 2025 – the terms of trade are set to change.

For India, this presents a major economic risk.

Trump has made trade a big focus of his second term as President of the USA – he is expected to upend the $24 trillion world goods trade and possibly the $7.5 trillion services trade.

This puts at risk India’s largest export market – the US.

The US has also been an important supplier of capital.

The US consumes as much as a fifth of India’s exports — led by two shiny new growth spots in phone manufacture and global capability centers — and is also among the biggest sources of fund flows, reports Bloomberg’s India Edition, written by Menaka Doshi.

Australia well knows that Trump’s trade strategies do not distinguish between friends and foes – as one of the USA’s closest defence allies, Australia was a major victim of Trump’s anti-China moves.

India could be hard hit this time around as he continues a “transactional and mercantilist” approach to trade.

India and Australia should be making the final negotiations on a trade deal a top priority.