August 2024 – Into India

How India can become the “next China”

Globalization worked so well for China, but is stressed today

It’s complicated.

Mainly because of the rise of protectionism worldwide.

The Chinese miracle rode on the wave of globalization that began around 1980 and lasted until the 2008 global financial market crisis.

Globalization has come under severe stress lately, according to Amit Kumar, a research analyst with the Takshashila Institution’s Indo-Pacific studies program.

Weaponizing trade has left nations increasingly wary of economic coercion.

Self-sufficiency in some form or other is back in fashion. PM Modi is super keen on self-sufficiency for India.

If globalisation is too restricted, India’s ambitions might be thwarted. India could well have shot itself in the foot here, with it’s own anti-globalism and scepticism on international trade deals.

Gains for India will however be derived from the ongoing de-risking and “China plus one” strategies.

India – unlike China during its growth – faces tough competition from Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia. India attracted 15% of European investment diversifying away from China, but it fell behind ASEAN, which attracted 21% of the rerouted investments.

India is also lagging on ease of doing business. INTO INDIA has praised India’s progress, but must admit that it is now too slow. Ease of doing business has to leap ahead.

India currently contributes 16% of the global economic growth, as opposed to China’s 34%. The IMF predicts India’s share to rise to 18% in the next five years.

As China witnesses a decline in its share owing to its economic slowdown, we are led to conclude that India should emerge as the leading engine of growth.

With one reservation – “Ease of doing business’ could be the key.

Perhaps India CAN become the ‘next China’ and drive global growth

India’s consumer base is rapidly growing – pic from a Delhi mall

Since INTO INDIA has been involved with India, the mantra from economists and diplomats has been that “India is not the next China “. Is that about to change?

It could be, according to Amit Kumar, a research analyst with the Takshashila Institution’s Indo-Pacific studies program.

China has been top of mind for good reason – contributing more than a quarter to global gross domestic product expansion between 1990 and 2020. In the period from 2013 to 2021, China contributed almost 39% of global GDP growth — 13% more than the G7 countries combined.

How could India become the next China?

India would need to sustain a near double-digit growth rate for nearly three decades.

It would need to integrate with the global manufacturing supply chain, transition into an export powerhouse and attract enormous foreign investment.

But 40 years ago, we would have said the same things about China.

China’s rise from the 1970’s was boosted because of the deepening U.S.-Soviet rivalry and the Sino-Soviet split, prompted the US and the West to open up to China in 1971.

This is happening now with India.

Due to the deepening strategic competition with China, Beijing’s expanding diplomatic and economic clout, its belligerent foreign policy and economic coercion, has sparked concerns of overdependence and strategic vulnerability in the West.

India is emerging (has emerged?) as the preferred partner for the West.

We should not forget that China’s growth was also driven by global businesses looking for cheaper manufacturing.

This is now happening with India. Global firms now see India as an alternative to China.

The Indian Government has already supported high-profile projects involving the manufacturing of iPhones and the assembly of semiconductors – sending an “invitation” to others.

China also had a rapidly growing consumer base. No other Asian country had such a base – until India.

India has the second-largest consumer base – defined as people spending above $12 a day – of over 500 million, second only to China’s 900 million. Estimates show that by 2030, India’s consumer base will expand to 773 million, trailing only China’s 1.062 billion.

The gap between China and India will only shrink from here on.

NEXT BLOG – What India has to do to become the next China.

Just quietly, the “gig economy” is changing how we work and India is a good example

India’s gig economy is rapidly expanding, with predictions that the workforce will grow from 7 million in 2021 to 23.5 million by 2030.

This growth is stunning and signals a major shift in how we work.

INTO INDIA sees the gig economy as offering flexibility for both sides, remote working and other opportunities.

But the reality of being self employed is that you can also be “self unemployed”.

You can see why employers are so keen on this – providing access to a diverse talent pool while cutting costs. As companies embrace gig work, sectors like pharmaceuticals and technology are increasingly relying on freelance experts to meet their needs.

The gig workforce is growing – but it is still a tiny percentage of the total workforce – in India expecting to go from 1.5% in 2021-22 to 4.1% by the 2029-2030 financial year.

The pandemic is responsible for most recent changes in everything – and this is no exception.

Globally, the gig economy is expected to reach a gross volume of $455 billion by 2023, up from $368 billion in 2021. In India, there is a noticeable increase in organized sector gig work compared to a decline in the unorganized sector, reflecting a growing trend towards investing in gig workers.

INTO INDIA notes that trust between gig workers and employers is improving, with longer project durations becoming more common. Kapil Joshi, Deputy CEO of Ques Corp, observes that the average tenure for freelance projects has increased from 9 months to over a year since the pandemic, indicating growing trust in freelance coders for larger projects.

Historically, “flexibility” has meant flexibility for employers at the expense of employees. But this one might be different, because employees (some) are demanding gig work in preference to full time jobs.

We’ll see how this one goes over time.

Xentrix Studios Australia Animated Cricket Series ‘Snick and Willow’ to add real spin to our India relations

Xentrix Studios Australia has created a brilliant animated cricket series which will score big runs in both India and Australia – bringing us closer together on our favourite topic, cricket.

Don’t read what I say – watch this and be impressed…

The whole project is championed by famous cricketer Lord Ian Botham and was developed in collaboration with parent company, Xentrix Studios India.

Ken Cantrill, Head of Creative of Xentrix Studios Australia and Co-Creator of Snick and Willow. “The series is destined to be a massive success.”

This series is more than cricket, bridging cultures and inspiring young audiences worldwide. That is why INTO INDIA is so excited.

It educates about teamwork, courage, and the spirit of sportsmanship.

Can’t wait for it to come out – rumour is it will be launched during the Australia vs India Boxing Day Test this summer in Melbourne.

Want to know more about Xentrix?

https://www.xentrixstudios.com/