Tag: finance

Beyond the Hype: My Take on Navigating AI with Clarity


This is INTO INDIA with a difference – in this blog I am handing over to my friend Vinay Sarawagi who has written the clearest summary of how you should proceed with AI. Vinay is the Founder, The Media GCC | Mindful Media l AI Trust and Safety and is a former Senior Vice President – Digital at The Times Group.

READ HIS REPORT ON “BEYOND THE HYPE”:

Artificial intelligence is the most transformative tech of the century. This doesn’t change another fact: we’re in a hype cycle. Snake oil is being sold in AI’s name.

The Big Tech Reality Check

Organizations and governments are overwhelmed by AI. Smart money sticks to first principles.

Watch what organisations like Apple and Google do. When they slow certain AI implementations, despite hundreds of billions in revenue at stake, it tells you something critical. The technology shows bright sparks. It’s not there yet.

This isn’t about legacy companies being outpaced by emerging tech. Google has done more AI research than most universities combined. These companies aren’t behind the curve. They’re mindful of the gap.

When an AI startup claims breakthrough capabilities that Apple, Google, or Microsoft can’t match, take it with a bucket of salt. These tech giants possess both the expertise and cash reserves, running into hundreds of billions, to acquire any capability they lack.

First Principles in an Age of Disruption

Stop panicking. Avoid emotional responses that swing between overwhelming fear and outright denial.

Two priorities matter: educate yourself your teams on AI’s capabilities and limitations. Stick to your business fundamentals.

Market Psychology and the Innovation Cycle

Markets behave like human psychology. A decade ago, predicting a tech that could replace half of all jobs within 2-3 decades would have seemed absurd. Most believed fundamental innovations were complete. Only incremental progress remained possible.

Then ChatGPT arrived. A public-facing tool that gave everyone a glimpse into generative AI’s power. BOOM! Gold rush mentality.

Markets respond with boom and bust cycles. This process rediscovers the new normal. The challenge: distinguishing hype from real potential while living through it.

This requires a multi-dimensional approach. Grounded, pragmatic, sharp, incisive, data-driven. Also lateral and far-reaching. Finding the sweet spot demands all these perspectives simultaneously.

Separating Signal from Noise

AI will redefine everything we know about our world. True statement.

Today, a lot of AI marketing is snake oil. Also true.

Develop filters. Differentiate real capability from hype. Know what’s right for your business adoption strategy. Always return to first principles.

Strategic Implementation Framework

One week of data can blind you. One month isn’t much better. Long-term data matters. Qualitative benchmarks matter too.

When trillion dollar tech giants proceed cautiously, pay attention. Their restraint reflects deep understanding of current boundaries, not innovation failure.

The future belongs to those who harness AI’s power while avoiding its pitfalls.

vinay@thegcc.media

Trump’s “transactional and mercantilist” approach to trade will test India in 2025

India at risk as Trump’s trade policies do not distinguish between friend and foe.

One certainty of 2025 – the terms of trade are set to change.

For India, this presents a major economic risk.

Trump has made trade a big focus of his second term as President of the USA – he is expected to upend the $24 trillion world goods trade and possibly the $7.5 trillion services trade.

This puts at risk India’s largest export market – the US.

The US has also been an important supplier of capital.

The US consumes as much as a fifth of India’s exports —  led by two shiny new growth spots in phone manufacture and global capability centers — and is also among the biggest sources of fund flows, reports Bloomberg’s India Edition, written by Menaka Doshi.

Australia well knows that Trump’s trade strategies do not distinguish between friends and foes – as one of the USA’s closest defence allies, Australia was a major victim of Trump’s anti-China moves.

India could be hard hit this time around as he continues a “transactional and mercantilist” approach to trade.

India and Australia should be making the final negotiations on a trade deal a top priority.

9 reasons India is well placed for the next Trump era

What does the election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States mean for India?

In the past Trump has taken steps to address the US trade deficit with India, like increasing steel and aluminium tariffs, removing GSP benefits, calling out India for high tariffs on motorcycles, dairy, technology items and also pushing for a much more stringent IPR regime.

INTO INDIA provides 9 reasons India is well placed for the next four years of President Trump:

  1. The Indian economy grows due to domestic demand – not trade

    India’s biggest advantage in any global trade war is that it relies much less on trade than most countries – India is flat our trying to meet growing domestic demand, and with a young population this will likely continue.

    But India’s largest trade partners are China and the USA – roughly equal. So, a trade feud between those two will have an impact in India.

    2. India has the advantage of a trade surplus with the USA

    Again, here India is better off than most as it has a trade surplus with the USA.

    3. India is seen as an alternative supplier to China

    Trump’s administration has talked about imposing tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese imports, potentially damaging China’s competitiveness in the US market. In this context, India stands to benefit as an alternate supplier for some of the products where China has dominated in the past, such as electronics, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and more.

    The US imports huge volumes of merchandise from China, such as smartphones, mechanical appliances, toys, furniture, and plastics. India’s share in these sectors is currently low, but the imposition of high tariffs on China could make Indian exports more competitive. For instance, India’s share in the US smartphone market is only 3%, compared to China’s 27%.

    Similarly, the pharmaceutical sector, where India already has a strong export presence, stands to benefit from ‘Trump tariffs’. India’s pharmaceutical exports to the US already account for a considerable share, and with China’s market share likely to shrink, India could see even more demand for its generics and other pharmaceutical products.

    4. Indian renewables might benefit from Trump’s “climate scepticism”

    Another area where India could see an uptick in exports is the renewable energy sector. Trump’s proposal to cut green energy subsidies in the US may create a gap that Indian green energy exporters could fill, particularly with photovoltaic cells used in solar panels.

    5. India has a counter to the 10% tariff challenge

    However, Trump’s proposed universal tariff of 10% on all imports to the US (as mentioned in his recent speeches) could trigger a global trade war, and India’s businesses may find themselves caught in the crossfire.

    But – the economic benefits India stands to gain from trade diversion away from China could well outweigh the costs of universal tariffs.

    6. Indian business optimistic and investing in the US

    Conversely, Indian businesses are optimistic about the favourable business environment in the US under Trump 2.0. For instance, the Aditya Birla Group has expressed intentions to increase its US investments, citing the historically favourable relationship between Trump and India. Trump loves new investment.

    7. India has a friendly investment ecosystem

    Investments are also expected to flow into India. According to a report by The Economic Times, Apple Inc. could boost its iPhone production in India to over $30 billion annually within the next two years.

    Here India’s timing is good – India has developed a strong, investment-friendly ecosystem, making it an appealing destination for global capital. The country’s growing market, skilled workforce, and regulatory improvements position it well to attract more investment, especially as businesses seek alternatives to China.

    8. India has ordered large numbers of US aircraft

    India has another bargaining tool – it makes large aircraft orders, generating jobs in the US, clearly demonstrate why India will be at the Washington DC negotiating tables.

     9. The Trump and Modi friendship runs deep

    Both leaders are seen as outsiders in the establishment of their capitals – New Delhi and Washington DC. Both are anti traditional approaches to governing. Both are often described as alpha – strong – leaders. From my direct experience in India during the first term of Trump – he knows he has a huge fan club in the Indian PM and among Indian businesses.

    Why India is such a rare and attractive investment market

    There is something about investing in India that most investors are not aware of. INTO INDIA is pleased to bring this important statistic to you.

    India is a rare market that has delivered double digit annualised returns in USD terms consistently over a 5, 10, 15 and 20 year time frame.  Even the US has not done that, falling just short over the 20 year time horizon.

    Why is this happening?

    This startling fact was drawn to the attention of INTO INDIA by Anish Mathew, Chief Executive Officer & Chief Investment Officer, Sundaram Asset Management Singapore Pte Ltd.

    Anish explains – “There are a couple of key reasons for this in my view.  India is a capital scarce country and hence cost of capital has always been high in India. 

    “This has resulted in corporates being generally disciplined about their capital allocation decisions which in turn has benefited their shareholders over the longer term. 

    “Secondly, the correlation between economic growth and corporate profits is the highest amongst its EM peers.  Studies have shown that over a 20 year period, it is around 0.62. 

    “As the Indian economy has grown at an average of 6% since 1980, corporate profits have benefited, thereby underpinning the performance of the Indian market over the long term,” he said.

    For those who love the stats:

    The MSCI INDIA Net Total Return USD Index:

    5 years – 11.92%

    10 years – 10.06%

    15 years – 10.42%

    20 years – 11.04%

    Makes INTO INDIA wonder – are we missing the India investment opportunity?