Into India

Is your country serious about India? Lessons from FICCI and the UK

India’s Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) has launched a portal called “UKThat” which will promote manufacturing and service industries from UK into India. Great initiative. Has FICCI done that for your country?

A series of initiatives to promote trade and investment between India and Britain was unveiled in India by the Indian High Commission and traders’ body the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI).

The UK-India Technology and Talent Exchange Programme, dubbed TechXChange, is aimed at providing support to the best start-ups in both countries.

It follows from the technology exchange programme that has been signed between the two countries in presence of the Prime Ministers (Narendra Modi and Theresa May).

“This is an attempt to really give it some shape, some serious framework to make this actually happen between India and the UK,” said Sunil Parekh, FICCI’s Member of the National Executive Committee and Chair of the Sub-Committee on Start-ups, at a two-day UK-India Leadership Conclave which concluded recently.

Now, that is the kind of decisive conclave I would like for Australia and India.

Why not?

In a move to boost UK exports to India, the industry body announced the ‘UKThat’ Portal, which will create a marketplace for manufacturing and services industries and offshore traders of all goods and services to promote their products to international clients in India.

FICCI seeks to provide an easy way for Indian importers to quote and purchase from UK businesses without third parties or intermediaries, in complete transparent and secure transactions,” it said in a statement.

International Yoga Day gives insights into how India differs from China

One of the global initiatives of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been International Yoga Day – celebrated across the world on 21 June each year since 2015.

While China is building a global reputation based on the “belt and road” initiative and creating bases in the South China Sea, defending accusations of deliberately creating debt in emerging nations and interfering with neighbours, India just goes on doing its own thing.

China has an ageing population and a trade-dependent economy – it is vulnerable to global economic shifts and worried about security of trade routes.

In contrast, India has a young population and economic growth driven by internal demand. It is less likely to be affected by global economic downturns or security issues.

This is not to say security is not on the mind of India – it recently did a significant deal with Indonesia. But for China, security of trade routes is the dominant global concern.

That is why International Yoga Day gives special insight into modern India – lifting millions out of poverty, creating a strong economy and global strength but celebrating the quiet and peaceful side of its culture. This year the theme was “Yoga for Peace” and somehow I feel only India could come up with such a concept.

Fitch upgrades India growth to 7.4%

Fitch Ratings this week raised India growth forecast for 2018-19 to 7.4 per cent from 7.3 per cent, but cited higher financing costs and rising oil prices as risks to growth.

For 2019-20, it estimated the country to grow at 7.5 per cent.

The economy grew at 6.7 per cent in 2017-18 and 7.7 per cent in January-March quarter.

According to Fitch, India has better macroeconomic fundamentals than in 2013 and very low foreign ownership rates in the domestic government bond market, but the current account deficit has been widening as a result of rising oil prices, reviving domestic demand and poor manufacturing export performance, it said.

Time to review your India engagement strategy?

Time for the west to take notice when Russia, China and India meet at SCO

This weekend showed how much the west looks at the world through the prism of Europe and America – with the focus very much on the G7 meeting.

There was little or no western media coverage or political analysis of another important meeting over this last weekend – the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which has 8 members, representing 42 per cent of the world’s population, 22 per cent of the land area and 20 per cent of the GDP.

SCO focuses on political, economic, security and cultural cooperation among members – China, Russia, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan.

Unlike the friction of the G7 (pictured below), this meeting was a real opportunity for one-on-one discussions between leaders such as India’s Prime Minister Modi and China’s President Xi, who met on multiple occasions.

India is a new member of SCO and was very much focused on regional connectivity projects to boost trade among members of the SCO countries. India has been strongly pushing for connectivity projects like the Chabahar port project in Iran and the over-7,200 km long International North-South Transport Corridor to gain access to resource-rich Central Asian countries.

Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi were also expected to discuss the economic ties between the two countries over the two days. India has been asking China to open its IT and pharmaceutical sectors to address the trade deficit which climbed to over $51 billion last year.

Outcomes of this meeting will be important for countries like Australia and Indonesia – but in Australia, at least, it seems SCO is not on the radar while the goings on at the G7 gain all the attention. Time to change our prism?

World Bank forecasts 7.3% growth for India – world’s fastest emerging market

The World Bank has forecast a growth rate of 7.3 per cent for India this year and 7.5 per cent for the next two years, making it the fastest growing country among major emerging economies.

A top World Bank official said India’s economy is robust, resilient and has potential to deliver sustained growth. economy India retains the tag of the fastest growing country among the world’s major emerging economies, Ayhan Kose, Director of the Development Prospects Group at the World Bank, told PTI.

“India’s economy (today) is robust, resilient and has potential to deliver sustained growth,” Kose said.

“India is doing well. Growth is being robust. Investment growth remains high. Consumption remains strong. All in all these numbers are encouraging,” Kose said, referring to the World Bank report on India’s growth rate figures.

“However, you look at it, India is in a very strong position,” he said.

Why India?

If you are in business or investment, this question (why India?) will have been asked before. But the answer is becoming more compelling as the following list shows: indiagate

India to remain one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Source: International Monetary Fund
FDI inflows increased by 37% since the launch of Make in India initiative. Source: Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, Government of India
Leading investors ranked India as the most attractive market. Source: Ernst & Young Emerging Markets Center
India to have world’s largest youth population by 2020. Source: United Nations Population Fund
India to be the largest supplier of university graduates in the world by 2020. Source: British Council
India has the third largest group of scientists and technicians in the world. Source: All India Management Association & The Boston Consulting Group
Rising affluence is the biggest driver of increasing consumption in India. Source: Boston Consulting Group
India’s consumer story will be led by its 129 million urban mass consumers. Source: Goldman Sachs Group
Private consumption will be four times by 2025. Source: McKinsey Global Institute
Centre of global maritime trade to move from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean Region. India and China will be the largest manufacturing hubs of the world by 2030; Source: Lloyd’s Register Marine & University of Strathclyde, Glasgow
In next five years, India to have greater economic influence across the Asia Pacific region; Source: Baker McKenzie & Mergermarket Group
Over the next three decades more than 350 million Indians will move into cities. Source: McKinsey Global Institute
Over the next two decades more than USD 1.5 trillion investments planned for infrastructure. Source: Press Information Bureau, Government of India
India registered a record improvement on Ease of Doing Business ranking from 142 to 100 between 2014-2017; Source: World Bank
India ranks 40th on Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) 2016-17; Source: World Economic Forum
95% of 1.2 bn Indians are under Aadhar scheme: One of the world’s Largest Social Security Program; Source: Press Information Bureau, Government of India
Jan Dhan Yojana: Formalization of Savings: 312 million bank accounts have been opened with savings amounting to USD 11.6 bn; Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India
Goods and Services Tax (GST), biggest tax reforms since independence; Source: Government of India
India is on the move – time to jump on board!

Real leadership to boost Indonesia and India trade

The leaders of Indonesia and India have shown how to lead on trade – committing to boost bilateral trade to USD 50 billion by 2025, from around USD 18 billion this year. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Indonesian President Joko Widodo made the announcement during talks this week.

ModiWidodo

The boost follows a defence agreement earlier this month for an Indian port and base on an Indonesian island at the northern tip of Sumatra. The deals are confirmation of India’s active “look east” policy and signal a shift which will impact ASEAN.

This leadership is in contrast to Australia’s relationship with India, with trade stuck on around A$18 billion compared to over A$180 billion with China.

India’s Media & Entertainment growing rapidly – hungry for content and investment

The Indian media and entertainment (M&E) industry grew at an average annual rate of 18.55 per cent from 2011-2017; and is expected to grow at 13.9 per cent to touch US$37.55 billion by 2021.

Entertainment

The next 5 years will see digital technologies increase their influence across the industry leading to a sea change in consumer behaviour across all segments.

The entertainment industry is projected to be more than US$62.2 billion by FY25.

The industry provides employment to 3.5-4 million people.

The entertainment industry continues to be dominated by the television segment, with the segment accounting for 44.24 per cent of revenue share in 2016, which is expected to grow further to 48.18 per cent by 2021.

Google’s video platform, YouTube, plans to increase its user base in India to 400 million, as rising internet penetration in the rural areas will enable consumers to access videos on their smartphones.

I expect personal video messages to be a massive growth area – with Indian creativity being stretched to supply this sector.

India is one of the highest spending and fastest growing advertising markets globally. The country’s expenditure on advertising is expected to grow at 12.1 per cent to US$10.59 billion by the end of 2018.

If you are an investor or content provider, India should be on your radar.

Put Indore and MP on your India trade mission list

Indore is the largest city in the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh and for the second year in a row has won the Swachh Survekshan Survey as India’s cleanest city.

Indore is the financial capital of MP, is an education and mineral resources hub and the state has a major agribusiness economy. In addition, India’s IT giants such as Infosys and TCS are setting up major centres there – Infosys is locating an IT development centre in Indore which will employ about 13,000 and TCS is building a campus there.

The State of Madhya Pradesh has 75 million people.

Indore holds a highly successful “Global Investors Summit” each year.

Definitely another one of India’s “tier 2” cities worth putting on your trade and investment mission list.

India and Indonesia deal signals major shift in Indian Ocean response to China

Indonesia has agreed to give India economic and military access to the strategic island of Sabang at the northern tip of Sumatra and close to the Malacca Strait, an Indonesian minister said last week.

In a typically low profile way, both countries have done the deal in response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative and it signals a major shift in the attitude of Indonesia – it now wants to provide some “balance” to the China move.

Luhut Pandjaitan, Indonesia’s coordinating minister for maritime affairs and a former military officer, said India will invest in the port and economic zone of Sabang and build a hospital. He noted the port’s 40-metre depth is good for all types of vessels, “including submarines”. In time, he said, the coast guards of the two countries could also work together.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Indonesia on May 31 and no doubt will announce more extensions to his “Act East” strategy.

An Indonesian official accompanying Pandjaitan said his understanding was that besides development of the port, Indian naval ships would be allowed to visit Sabang under the understanding.

The Malacca Strait is considered one of six choke points, or narrow channels, along widely used global sea routes. They are critical for global energy security because of the high volume of oil transported through narrow straits. At least 15 million bpd of oil flows through the Malacca Strait from West Asia and West Africa.

Pandjaitan outlined the reasons for closer bilateral cooperation. He was critical of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, saying: “We do not want to be controlled by BRI.” He also questioned China’s unilateral claims on the South China Sea, noting this includes parts of Indonesia’s maritime exclusive economic zone.

Indonesia had positioned a plan called the “global maritime fulcrum” that is “designed to balance the BRI”, he said. Indonesia and India are big enough that “we don’t have to lean towards any superpower, and this makes India a sensible partner for Indonesia”, he added.

This marks a major shift in Indonesia’s attitude towards China and India. Until recently, Jakarta had been reluctant to seek strategic alignment with New Delhi and was in two minds about Beijing’s role in the region.

More to come…